ready to run (away), page-7

The case for CR to cover debt is pretty weak if oil production targets are on track.

Furthermore if any of the the GCL or other deals go ahead before the end of the year (facility expires Jan 2013) and at least GCL looks promising that it will go ahead then again any cash from those can pay down (pay out?) debt facility.

The Debt this week should be approx $60mil - half of the facility used so far and whilst not a trivial amount this debt has been fully disclosed and is easily covered fivefold by assets at firesale. So at these prices LNC is an absolute bargain IMO.

The need for CR to pay out that debt will rest on

a) the fate/timing of the GCL deal - $120mil
b) the fate/timing of asset sale/JV (Teresa, or SAPEX)
c) the fate/timing of some other deal - Poland etc
d) and most importantly Oil cashflow - will they achieve 7000 BOPD by Dec, 10000 by Jul 13 - if the achieve 7000 by December then securing a new debt facility to pay out the old one should be a cinch.