everyone is complaining that there is something fishy going on...

everyone is complaining that there is something fishy going on with the share price. but if we were producing at nameplate at current levels what would be the EPS then?

I dont have the exact figures but mornigstar had an update in Jan 13 that mentioned that if IO price was 145 Karrar will make 500M so halve that it leave you with 250 minus repayments of debt 225m so we would be trading at single digit mulitples

Yes I am saying that there will be no blow outs because management have mentioned that everything is going to plan.

the fact that we are making a loss on the ore now is irrelevant because we need money to ramp up so if we are getting x million in cash to let us get through the ramp up stage who cares. everyone that is worried about the ramp up should take in consideration that we are getting cash flow for sh@T grade which reduces the need for CR.

yes we got screwed with the latest CR for no apparent reason and that killed any real trust we had with management. As for cost blow out history has mentioned that it was normal at that time not many projects were delivered within budget every major player had blow out the sudden rise of IO made markets tight so cost increased and not hedging our dollar also cost us money

but as a project based on current market prices and based on what WE DO KNOW this is a good entry price. For us long term holders a double in price will save improve our losses by a good % and that is all I am hoping for.

IMO If you have not bailed out before now would not be the time to get out I think now would be the time to buy if you can.

call me naive or ignorant of market forces but I make my assumption based on what facts I have and some forward estimates. so based on what I have read. No blow outs, cash coming in, IO prices remaining high, AUD dollar should not go higher then current prices and may even drop. EPS should still be positive and Full year P/E would be low.