On the previous thread there have been a wide range of numbers thrown about re. flow rates. I have a very large holding in SSN so am certainly as interested as anyone else. I thought Wilson's post of 7801131 was excellent for setting a realistic tone. However I poked around on the internet to look at the BEXP offsets to see if I could apply a bit more science to the numbers.
There are others drilled by Continental to the South but maybe another poster can research these!
The bad news (or good news) is that all of these wells had considerably longer laterals. I could not find the exact length but based on a comparison of total well length at least 3500 ft longer that Aust II. Additionally they all uses more frac stages. Finally they were drilled by an operator considerably more experienced. Hence it is reasonable to assume that these flow rates will all be higher than Aust II.
Now we need to look at the wells in more detail (in chronological order):
1. Rogney, 30 frac stages but 1st Montana well. BEXP stated well 'underfracced' not sure what that means but reading between the lines they got a good 9 stages away then the remaining 21 were a bit half assed. As the well is fracced from the toe up and the ell will what to flow preferentially from the heel this means this well was sub optimal.
2. Swindle, they got the liner stuck well off bottom so only managed 20 fracs, then entire toe of the well, some 3000 + feet fracced in one go. Essentially this will mean a large portion of the toe will not have been fracced at all.
3. Gobbs is a monster with 30 fracs, not really a good offset, other than to show what can be achieved if a long enough lateral is drilled.
So we have 4500 ft and 16 frac stages away. More 'good stages' than Rogney, but less open hole. Similar to Swindle but again less open hole.
I would say go optimistically to go in between the 2 then apply a 25% discount for shorter lateral so my optimistic number is 750 bopped. I would then apply a further 25% new kids on the block discount (or to make my maths easier round it down to 600 bopd).
I know these numbers are not substantially different to others but I don't want a sell down when the well fails to flow at 1800 bopd as it is simply not going to I'm afraid.
Anything around 600 bopd indicates a strong buy to me as it tells me in time SSN can replicate BEXP flowrates.
good luck all,
Oilman
7801131
SSN Price at posting:
14.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
