I don't profess to know much about statistics nor the greater property market.
What I do know is the market in the tight geographical in which I invest (4 suburbs in a band in southern Sydney).
I look at all the properties for sale and keep an eye on the rental market.
I was amazed the other day when 2 prospective tenants offered an extra $10 & $20 per week over the advertised rent for a property I own. With the property being vacant after about 2 years of rental I was stunned to be told that the market rent would be just under $600 a week. That is a lot of money to be paying week in and week out before any other expenses and out of after tax money.
In these areas I have seen some houses actually being sold for much higher prices than I expected. These are properties that I have inspected in person (not over the net) and compared them with other sales in the area.
Actual knowledge of what is going on in an area beats generalisations and éxamples'plucked of the net with no underlying understanding of the issues of that street, house or suburbs.
To simplify property is to advertise one's own simplicity in my opinion.
I don't know what the future holds for property but I expect that it will be a tough market for some time to come. Having said that I live in a nice property and would be mortified to be paying someone else to do so.
The bottom line for me is that I specialise in particular areas and I am not seeing problems at all in those areas.
If prices go up 5% or down 5% in any one period I just shrug the shoulders and it is business as usual. I think sometimes that those calling 50% drops to occur have personalities best suited to other areas of investment.
I have been reading posts on this HC thread for a while and it is good to see a high quality and balanced post come through. I hope it encourages others to lower the noise and raise the quality of posts.
This would be a great forum to actually discuss real property issues and I am getting the feeling that it is moving more in that direction now - I hope
