Like most of you i have my fingers crossed for the 24th August results. Just to put things into perspective we can expect that the results will be heavily impacted by the "increased provision"/write down that happened at half year.
On 23rd Feb, Shine reaffirmed FY16 guidance of $24-28million for EBITDA. Here's a comparison from previous years:
Column 1
Column 2
Column 3
Column 4
0
2014
2015
2016
1
EBITDA
$34m
$44m
$24-28m
2
Price (1 September)
2.36
2.25
?
The prices above ignore various peaks and troughs and the high point was 3.36 in March 2015. Full year for 2015 was impacted by SGH uncertainty, 2014 results didn't have this "guilt by association".
Assuming guidaance is met, and if we (very naively) assume there is a straight correlation between price and EBITDA then this would put price post FY16 results around $1.2 - $1.4 per share.
Long term - years away when sentiment over legal stocks changes - an equivalent result should fetch a higher price.
SHJ Price at posting:
$1.12 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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