Thanks Carelbi, I don't mind those figures at all. I see your break-even scenario as a worst case for a number of reasons: - I believe some of the other costs (such as admin, D&A) are built in to the COP already. That's why the COP drops when Phase 2 starts up in parallel. - Phase 1 COP is top end of the estimates with a clear message that they can work this down as they fine tune the plant. - 20% discount to basket may be correct initially but there'll be a premium for reliable top quality custom made product as EN said. Of course the basket price could go lower but it appears noone will make a profit under that scenario even Baotou.
Your phase 2 scenario @ 22c per share is about where I expect us to be for the FY 14 (phase 2 half sold, better numbers otherwise) and that realistically translates to a SP over $2. Your 90c scenario is certainly not far fetched and would make for excellent returns!
LYC Price at posting:
48.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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