I've been personally buying at 2.5c and today bought...

I've been personally buying at 2.5c and today bought aggressively at 2.4c and 2.5c (having missed the selling at 2.3c.

By APN's admission today the listed trust is now in play. This is different to APN trying to preserve their management fee rights by staying the course.

In their recent disclosures, they are covering their operating expenses and interest bills, and slightly reducing their debt out of cash flow. Hard to imagine a bank risking administration in this situation.

From the statement the bank(s) appear to be looking for some resolution, some commitment to resolution by APN. Not dilly dallying around. APN have indicated this might involve a 3 year workout. There is a very good chance even Europe might be recovering in 3 years. They are not highest grade retail centres but then early recovery is more likely in cheap centres.

Forget an equity issue.

The most likely event is a cashed up party (who can pay down the bank debt to below covenant levels) recognising the value gap between NAV and share price and negotiating a recommended offer. My pick all along has been a 10c+ offer, failing which a recovery in values in 2011-12 and getting 30c in 2012. Its worth reviewing what happened to Armstrong Jones Trust in 1989 onwards.....From memory I bought at 2c and sold at 90c ( sadly had little money invested then)