Over the Easter break I perused the Citigroup-Smith-Barney...

Over the Easter break I perused the Citigroup-Smith-Barney analysis issued 5th Feb this year.
By necessity their analysis must be conservativewhich doesn't mean pessimistic and certainly not optimistic.
Therefore one must wonder if it is realistic. But for the purposes of this exercise lets say it is.

CSB have constructed a model to indicate Hardman's profits from production based on the Production Sharing Contract they have with the Mauritanian government.
In this model they have considered only 1) Chinguetti as commercial and 2) Tiof with an assumed 300 MBO
They estimated:
Chinguetti's contribution equating to $1.21 per share and if TOF produces 300MBO the share price goes to $2.14.
Then with simple logic one could say 300MBO was worth $0.93 per share. Now lets say that Tiof is capable of producing 600 MBO. That would indicate $3.07 per share. BUT! These figures are pre dilution.
The additional shares (Placement + Entitlement) take the total shares from 482M to 634M = 31.5% dilution.
The $3.07 now falls to $2.10 per share.
This figure ignores any other reserves.

Too much of an over simplification ?