you guys are hoping for a higher basket price? who cares? the...

you guys are hoping for a higher basket price? who cares? the lynas basket price is a virtual number based on oxides. lynas main product is lree carbonate. they have small percentage of hree but it has to be separated. the only oxides they are producing is nd/pr. so what are the prospects of nd/pr prices rising? let me quote from an industry source:
http://www.asianmetal.com/Events_2013/2013RES/Index_2013RES_en.asp

"While Chinese production capacity of NdFeB magnets is estimated to have hit 30,0000 tons per year, annual demand is allegedly only half of this figure."

the above was a quote by a source of the rare earth industry folks. they have a reason to be optimistic. so let's look at an independent source outside the industry:
http://www.visiongain.com/Report/843/The-Rare-Earths-Market-2012-2022

"It is expected that the global rare earths market value will decline during the forecast period due to falling prices of rare earths."

10 years of falling re prices? hope these guys are wrong.

now people keep on arguing that the company was funded when re prices were much lower than today. well, they speculated on growing demand. and they were wrong. they speculated on rising re prices. and they were right. but that was two years ago and due to dramatic delays lynas was not able to profit as planned.
reality steps in now. and it does bite. demand has been slowing, prices are declining. who profits long term? china does. nobody can blame china for defending their dominance btw.

now let's have a realistic look at what we really have here.

we have a fallen angle who is still valued above 1.2 billion aud, now hoping to produce products into an oversupplied market without knowing the impacts of further oversupply caused by its own production. we have a company with a production facility that is considered as a social problem in malaysia with a movement that claims to stop the company in order to "save malaysia" as well as an opposition party wanting to shut it down due to fears of environmental pollution. we have elections coming, the company being in the middle of a global growth debate.
we have old company announcements of supply contracts and joint ventures with no updates.

below the line this seems to be a great opportunity by shorting this stock. intelligent arguments welcome.