The original plan was based on a basket that included Ce at...

The original plan was based on a basket that included Ce at 1.43, Nd $7.67 and EU $300. This gave a NPAT in Yr 5 of $20m, and a project NPV of $106m.

However, all that is irrelevant now. There is no point in posting "do you know what the original basket was" when the whole plan was based on a much cheaper plant of a different design.

In Sept 2008 the forecast cash cost was $6.20/kg, +/- 10%. 50% of that was reagents, and 30% energy. Avalon's prefeasibility cash costs are $5.64/kg, although that doesn't seem to include energy - reagents are 70% for Avalon.

Anyway, it is total operating costs which are more important - can't work out profitability without the total cost.

Even in the 23/11/2010 preso the company was trumpeting (several times) that LYC would be producing in Q3 2011. "Lynas will be online in 2011, delivering Rare Earths globally. ... Production will be 11,000 REO (sic) by this time next year, we will double this production in 2012.

NOWHERE is there any hint that they needed a TOL, or a POL.

(even a year later, 30/11/11, when the say that "all major tanks are in place and the furnaces are progressing well" - you WHAT! You should have been producing for a minimum of two months by now! - there is no mention of any regulatory issues)

They do say that they have raised another $450m to complete the a project that was budgeted to only cost $415m in total.

Since then they've raised another $650m in loan facilities and share issues.

Fundamentally, this company has failed to deliver on every possible front. Finance, scheduling, budgeting, regulatory approvals, shareholder and governmental relations, community relations, site selection, commitments to shareholders - they got lucky finding Mt Weld, it has been downhill ever since.

IF they ever get regulatory approval, and IF they manage to run the plant long enough without smsl shutting it down again because of a minor hiccup, they may well prove that they are capable of producing REE profitably. But until then, based on their track record over the last seven years, I wouldn't be holding my breath (or shares) that the plant will work effectively or that the operating costs will be below $20/kg.