Hi all,
I take no pleasure in seeing everything I have stated come true. It is important for investors to protect capital and not fall for hot air and smoke screens. If we review what was predicted vs the incessant ramping but have a balanced view it is clear now the challenges and also the likelihood of this asset being developed.
My previous calls:
1. No FIRB end of March =
Correct Comment - if FIRB has taken 144 days already why does anyone have any confidence that it would be approved at this stage. Yes people have called FIRB to be told delay occur. This is typically 30 days. Please point out any example that FIRB has taken 144 days for any other company for a minority investment.
2. AVZ will capital raise by end of March Quarter =
CorrectComment - AVZ last quarterly stated 160k cash would be lest at the end of March (assuming they did not overspend vs cash spend forecast). The 1 million debt obtained from Yinbin does not carry the company through the quarter so the company would need this capital raise to be a going concern.
These funds only get AVZ through another quarter cashflow based on historical quarterly cashflow.
3. Yinbin Funds do not come in =
CorrectComment - In my opinion PLS deal makes this increasingly unlikely. Clearly AVZ can not state this otherwise this capital raise would fail.
4. DFS is 95% complete =
in my opinion very unlikely.
Comment - Nigel spoke numerous times about the desire to drill out the pit floor. To do this takes time and funds. This in my opinion is the key constraint as well as transport having not been clearly defined. This is a major red flag in my opinion for the DFS being completed before July.
5. 3c Options will be converted appears increasingly unlikely. Market is extremely volatile. It would appear risky to listen to any holder promoting the company will receive cash from this source of potential funding.
This is a high risk investment. Companies that are producing with strong cash balance sheets will be in even stronger positions as companies are unlikely in this market to receive development funding as well as competitors that did not have strong balance sheets collapse.
AVZ in my opinion is extremely high risk and not for the faint hearted. If you choose to hold good on you, you have massive balls of steel and an extremely high risk tolerance.
For investors in my opinion you need to balance the above with what can go right. Stating we are ok for 3 years does not work. In my opinion AVZ has been constantly late with most activities and dates presented.
Investors stating they rang company (& who knows if this true that they rang company or were told what they represented) and were told xyz are frequently proven to be false.
Unfortunately trolling contrarian comments seems to be the typical response to what has been shown to be the most accurate comments to date discussing key risks that should be forefront of mind.
