Another piece of evidence of boom and bust for the juniors....

Another piece of evidence of boom and bust for the juniors. About a week before the top of the market bubble, a low-value poster who multi-nics wrote on the day trading thread that a company was about to move into lithium (a complete lie, he should have had that account suspended too) - however, the stock ran 50% on that. No chance it would happen today.

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So now the reality has bitten it comes down to which hard-rockers are going to make it to production. At this stage the front runner is obviously PLS (which makes it most interesting) and second I think KDR have an edge over the other contenders, because they are in mining country with some permit hurdles and long lead items knocked down before they started.

Therefore if I was a lithium junior I'd think about taking the bigger risk and less lazy option and look for another Greenbushes, for which time is much less an obstacle, and great riches obviously more assured.

Is it possible that another Greenbushes exists? I think yes. Firstly, modern techniques and skills have hardly been implemented for lithium exploration so far. The juniors have simply moved into known areas of historical Ta and Sn production or nearologies to other lithium camps. Secondly, lithium is usually depleted in the generally deeply weathered surface of Australia, so some more "outside the box" exploration is likely to generate an expanded number of potential targets. Lastly, it appears that Greenbushes has had two mineralising events - the original crystallisation of fractionated granitic melt, bearing spodumene at possibly similar grades to Pilgangoora, Mt Marion, Mt Catlin, Mt Holland, etc. And then some 1B years later, a hydrothermal event which has caused at least partial recrystallisation of the pegmatite and upgraded it for spodumene content. So personally if I was late to the party, but lithium committed, I'd go all-in and hunt for another with the secondary kicker for >2.5% Li2O. Finding one would have the current start-ups chasing their tails.