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W9cuda

67 Posts.

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15/08/16

18:09

Post #: 18522091
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Originally posted by Dwayno44 ↑

Unfortunately I joined the PLS bandwagon long after many of the long time posters in this forum. I bought at 70c back in May and have topped up multiple times since.

Like (almost) all of us here, I am firm believer in the future of our commodity and the role Li will play as a major component in this disruptive technology. I don't want to miss this opportunity, but I don't want to allow this emotional attachment to hinder my judgement.

Over the past month or so, I've bought into the "shorting conspiracy" along with the many retail holders on this forum. I've found it comforting telling myself that when the shorts unwind, our trend will reverse and we will see the results we foresaw when we bought into the PLS story. I'm now questioning this belief, and I know I am not alone. Conspiracy aside, there is reasoning behind the current sentiment.

If not the shorting, there's often been another convenient reason behind the disappointing performance, or a near term event that will spark a fire under returns. First BOA's. Now it's the DFS. Everyone knows the DFS is on the way. It's release is not going to light a fire under a damp log. Lately repeat positive news has done little but provide a temporary stop to the bleeding.

We can no longer keep our head in the sand and ignore the stock price trend without providing firm reasoning for our conviction in an eventual reversal. As I see it, we need to answer (at least) the following key questions to justify our confidence, and stop telling ourselves that the short will magically unwind. I've been doing my best and racking my brain to see what I can come up with, but I think it would be foolish not to throw it over to the people who have watched this story unfold of a lot longer than I have to get their take.

Key questions in my mind:
1. Future demand. Is the recent downturn in Chinese EV demand an aberration or a sign of things to come? My belief is the former.
2. Is our timeline to production going to "miss the boat"? I like to think the true potential of future demand is not yet understood. I just want some basis for thinking this way.
3. Brine vs Spodumene. No simple question and the subject of extensive ongoing debate. I guess what matters is does spodumene present an inherent disadvantage over brine as purported recently? My gut says given the strength of talisman, this is a mute argument. However the reported improved brine extraction methods have lowered my confidence a little.
4. MIN/ROFR. Is this holding back further BOA's?
5. DFS. Is this somewhat "invalidated" by the lack of BOA's for full production capacity?

Interested in your thoughts...

I want to stay strong. I just need to know why I am doing so...

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Being ABLE to dig stuff out of the ground, and actually DOING IT are 2 way different things.

PLS Price at posting: 47.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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