It's true, climate change cannot be linked to specific fires. No sensible person says it does.
However, it can increase their likelihood and severity of bushfires.
The CSIRO was warning state and federal governments about the link between bushfire severity/frequency and climate change at least 15 years ago. A recently published paper has confirmed that climate change has caused more frequent and severe bushfires in Australia, even after taking into account El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (most influential on rainfall/wind), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Southern Annular Mode (SAM).. (Read:
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0222328)
The RFS warned us over 10 years about the "the growing intensity and severity of recent bushfire experiences across the country”. The bureau of meteorology and CSIRO have told us that the number of extreme fire days has increased in recent decades, especially in Southern/EasternAustralia.The problem is, climate change has already:
- Caused drier conditions on the East coast of Australia, contributing to drought, dry fuel load, dry soil, and higher land temperatures
- Caused windier conditions which increases how rapidly bushfires can spread
- Increased the frequency of electrical storms, which "may" lead to more lightning strikes (debated amongst scientists)
- Caused long term changes to our bushland which has caused a decrease in the proportion of low flammability flora
- Changed rainfall patterns in Australia (Parts of WA have had more rain than normal, while the East gets less)
These changes have lengthened the duration of the fire season, which has reduced the numbers of days available for safe hazard reduction. It hasn’t been helped in NSW by the Coalition state government funding cuts which have dramatically reduced the amount of hazard reduction in recent years.
Scomo has also sat on his hands and not taken action to mitigate the effects of climate change. The federal government should have funded 5-6 large aerial bombers and supplied the states with more assistance. The establishment of a National Aerial Bushfire Fighting Fleet would also be appropriate.
Climate change will only make bushfires worse in the coming decades, this is the cost of doing business and of living in a dry country.
