Where’d you get 12k per house from? How many of those are 2...

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CDT82

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19/05/21

08:56

Post #: 53266393
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Originally posted by timboc: ↑

In 2019, there were 11495 new homes in Perth, in 2020 it was 15459. (Calendar Years).
The new version of HX is going to be able to lay 300 blocks per hour up to 12 SBE in size. So in a 12hour shift, it could lay 3600 * 12 which is more than is required for a normal-sized house. This means that it can lay 1 house in a day.
If they had 10 machines working 5 days per week for 46 weeks per year, that would be 2300 houses per year. (So FBR would need to capture 20% of the 2019 total or 15% of the 2020 total market, even less for 2021, who knows for 2022+).
If they got $12k revenue per house, that would be $27.6m revenue per annum.
Their current cash burn rate is about $10m per annum for R&D. Let's assume having a fleet of 10 HXs costs them another $10m per year to operate and maintain, so total costs $20m per annum leaving $7.6m profit per year.
If you multiply that by a P/E of 40 which is standard for a growing tech company, then the market capitalization would be $305m. (About triple todays market cap).
So if they can capture 15%-ish of Perths housing walls and they can reliably build a house in a shift, then the SP could be triple what today's is.
This is just from the Perth market. The total addressable market is huge. Robotics will feature in construction in the future. It will start small and continually expand until it is the dominant method of construction. So the runway on this is massive. There is lots of potential for good margins.

Some challenges remain, like reliably building the walls in a single shift. Hopefully, the new HX will be able to achieve this before too long.
In time, the challenges will be overcome. So I will wait patiently.

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Where’d you get 12k per house from? How many of those are 2 story and won’t be able to use the HX?

FBR Price at posting: 4.2¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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Last 4.7¢		Change 0.006(14.6%)		Mkt cap ! $208.7M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
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