GGY glengarry resources limited

reasons not to panic

  1. 2,878 Posts.
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    The following are my reasons why current holders shouldn't panic over the sale of shares by Dr Pretorius:

    1) Dr P. DIDN'T SELL ALL HIS SHARES. If he really did have insider knowledge and the news was bad, surely he would have sold all his shares. He could have easily sold them all on the 30 April as the volume of shares traded on that day was approx. 24mil. but he didn't. To me, this indicates that he was just managing his risk. Nothing in life is guaranteed. Even if you have insider knowledge, a sharemarket crash in China for example wouldn't stop GGY from tumbling even with decent drill results. So IMO, he was merely reducing his exposure/ risk by getting his initial outlay back and taking some profit. After all, having approx. $3.5mil invested in one company when you're only a shareholder getting third party info is a lot. Also, based on the volumes traded on 1st and 2nd May (approx 6mil shares traded in total), it is safe to assume that he didn't sell all his remaining shares on the those days as well.

    2) He currently still has 9,215,077 shares which amounts to approx. $1.8mil. This means that he currently has more money in GGY than he did when he initially announced that he became a substantial shareholder on 26 February 2007 (His initial outlay was $1.056mil based on average purchase price of 6.6 cents). So if shareholders were scrambling to buy into GGY after he announced he had purchased $1.056mil in the company, why panic and sell now when he now has $1.8mil in GGY.

    3) Technical analysis still positive. I'm not a pro at analysing charts but it appears (to me anyways) that the charts are still very positive ie. no breaks of any major supports, MA etc. (Hopefully, some chartists can confirm this). Even on the day Dr P. sold 5 mil. shares, the share price still closed at a new high on excellent volumes.

    4) Today's share price is holding up well. Whilst the share price is under a bit of pressure today, it can be safely deduced that the people selling today are only panic selling because of the announcement of Dr P's. reduction in his share holdings and not because of any leaked bad drill results. I say this because if it was because of leaked bad drill results, the share price should have actually tumbled immediately after Dr P sold (date leak of info would most likely have occurred if Dr P. did indeed have insider Knowledge) which was actually the 30 April and not today. The volume would also have been much larger because other major shareholders would have been selling too. Instead the volumes traded since Dr. P sold only amount to approx 12mil (over 3 days).

    5) Burp factor and the potential upside. The Burp's gut feeling has been extremely accurate to date (So accurate, it's scary sometimes...). I'm not saying that his predictions will come true, but consider this... If the Burp is correct again, the potential upside from today's price is more than 300% (200mil mkt cap). If however he is wrong, the price, in a worst case scenario, will most likely fall 50% to 60% if at all as there are still other major projects (including Uranium) which haven't commenced yet. Odds look pretty good to me considering the location of GGY's projects.

    Anyways, just my opinion. Managed to buy more today at 17.5cents. Hope my gut feeling is as good as the Burps!!! Good luck to all GGY holders and keep up the good work Burpless.
 
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