I talk probabilities not certainties and this is a bear case scenario with a higher probability than what you bulls are preaching imo.
Thats why the oh why negative holder not sold durrr, argument is amusing. Especially when I've already declared I sold the bulk of my holding and am riding free. I'm hedged.
"They will break down" Probably, but not in the next 3yrs when it matters
Compare this bear case to what you bull guys are preaching.
Battery passports will save the day(they don't even start until 2026) so not sure how that helps over the next 3yrs. By 2026 qpm will not have the volume(16kt) to be able to make the world pivot instantly.
I also think when they do come out exisiting contracts will be excluded, all these battery companies that have locked in BoA will be fine until they run out and by that stage we are deep into 2030s.....
Tailings dam accident? yep, this could happen and hopefully It does so the world does pivot from HPAL. However, likelihood? Good chance, though with how corrupt the Indo govt is who knows how they cover It up. Though, Idk if it'll happen in 3yrs.
That sums up the only bullish macro arguments I've heard to date.
Unfortunately, companies are driven by profits. Profits over people and what's best for the environment and Qpm is no longer the more profitable option. Qpm Capex is now significantly higher. Management imo know this that's why they are chasing this gas deal to help shore up the lacking DFS numbers.
Add HPA and the Gas deal and Qpm starts to look competitive with HPAL (Depending on the price of nickel come finance).
