Finindi, I have been doing some research on the work of a couple...

Finindi, I have been doing some research on the work of a couple of chaps named Michael Alexander and Martin Armstrong. Armstrong, you no doubt already know, made us aware of the 8.6 year cycle. Alexander used Armstrong's cycles and states that there are 4 basic permutations:

1) High inflation, high real earnings
- generally sideways periods of market chop

2) Low inflation, high real earnings
- periods of market boom

3) Low inflation, low real earnings
- periods of deflation/depression and booming bond markets

4) High inflation, low real earnings
- stagflationary periods of equity market

Obviously we are now in a 4 period. the last time we were in a 4 was in the 65-74 armstrong cycle. That crash you refer to came nearer the end of that cycle. this time we may get it closer to the beginning.

Here is a article from safe haven published in 2001 that explains it all in finer detail. It was published near the beginning of the last cycle. they made some predictions for the last cycle and their strike rate was very good.

http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=248