Nine Lives,I can remember 1974, at the beginning I was filling...

Nine Lives,

I can remember 1974, at the beginning I was filling my Mini 850 for $2. At the end of 1974, fuel was $1 per gallon. I was living in NZ then, we had to nominate a day each week where our car could not be used, a sticker on the windscreen showed the day for the authorities to police. The country could not afford to import the fuel.

This time around, there is much to be made in profits by the institutions, hedge funds by playing the downside via derivatives. These guys have no concern on the overall effect of their actions on world economies.

Yesterday's fakeout in the US came as almost all commentators were calling a lift into Wave 2. The best time for the professionals to go stop hunting to the downside.

Last night it was all about freddy and fanny, just like Monday.

Yes, we are in stagflation, but not high inflation, remember 17% mortgage rates in 1987?

Oil is down, but has not given the lift to the market as expected.

I believe we are in a period not covered by customary textbook theory, hence the fall will be quicker than 1967-1974.

And, I believe, the duration will be for some yeats. There will be a wave 2 up, perhaps coinciding with presidential elections, but Wave 3 and 5 down will come, nothing surer.