URO unknown

My calculations start by considering the market cap and cash...

  1. 1,843 Posts.
    My calculations start by considering the market cap and cash position, at $15m (I will count escrowed shares for the sake of being conservative) and $11.5m respectively. I take from this a value of $3.5m for the geothermal tenements.

    URO's first priority will be to drill the Limestone Coast (LC) project, most likely on a commercial scale. Unlike HDR/HFR systems which are poorly understood due to a lack of exploratory drilling, conventional geothermal such as LC has the advantage of targeting depths and geological units that are extremely well understood due to years of oiler drilling. Drilling will not be a major issue, and target depth is readily achievable (3500m - 4500m through sediment).

    LC will (lead times allowing) undergo commercial drilling within the next 12 months. This will be the second commercial-scale publicly-listed geothermal project in Australia. Despite our inability to predict an accurate cost/MWh and corresponding profit margin, I cannot see URO trading at less than $100m-$200m, although this is just my own expectation, based on current sector premiums and future sector bullishness.

    There is the $4m REDI grant that will hopefully be reinstated, to further bolster the very strong cash position (which is almost certain to be enough to see commercial scale drilling of LC without any dilution), and more payouts to follow as URO drill a target that is cheap, understood, safe, and absolutely critical to offsetting our carbon emissions.

    On top of LC, there are the options regarding JVs in Maharashta (200C at 2000m (!) earning up to 45% interest in a state with debilitating power shortages, a booming economy, and numerous incentives including a 10 year tax holiday) and the MOU with KGL in Kyrgyz Republic (potenitally 500C at 5000m (!!!!!!) earning up to 61% equity next to booming Chinese demand - for comparison, GDY have 290C at 5000m).

    Now we know De Graaf is not going to sit on his hands and relax. Despite the large (1000% is my conservative estimate, my expected target is higher) gains that will be made over the next 12 months, the story will only keep getting better for URO as Chinese demand swells, environmental concerns filter through various political machines, and viability of HFR systems is established.

    Take away the cash, and all this is valued at $3.5m.

 
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Currently unlisted public company.

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