AVH 10.1% $3.38 avita medical inc.

It's already being widely used in the US for all types of full...

  1. 1,232 Posts.
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    It's already being widely used in the US for all types of full and partial burn types and will be used for many other full thickness wounds as it becomes better known among practioners outside burn/trauma surgeons.
    It will find a very friendly audience in the treatment of vitiligo in both patients and practitioners. Just look to sales of Opzolura, the first real treatment for vitiligo, for evidence of market readiness. But Opzolura is expesive and has some potential side effects. And due to the nature of the disease I could see some patients opting to do both treatments. Vitiligo, although not life threatening, does have genuine psychological and social costs for those with the disease.
    My point above is more about the real number of current patients available for treatment and the fact the treatment of those patients in actual numbers will look like a bell curve. It will rise slowly as it's introduced, grow larger as it gains acceptance, peak and begin to fall as that patient population declines. But I can see it being a very good income stream for several years.
    Studies of vitiligo have been sparse and not well funded due to a lack treatment options. Sorry Weazel, but what studies have been done in India show anywhere from <.5% to 8.8%, depending on the locale. And most of those who may need it wouldn't have access to that kind of care.
    I really do hope they meet or better beat expectations in August. I think it's quite plausible they determined they will be in the forecast range. If they beat I think they would have put that out as preliminary as they need some good news. But then the other thought creeps in. Either way, meet or beat, it would be welcome news to investors. So why not put out a preliminary number?
    It's possible their main concern and audience is their lender. If they missed on the downside they may have decided to buy some time hoping to have more promising news to go along with the miss. They want the lender to feel assured they will make at least the 67.5M YE requirement to take the next tranche of debt (and take the possible calling in of the loan off the table).
    Really don't any conviction either way. So I wait. Wishing for good news. Will be happy to buy back higher.
    Sorry for the long winded post, some repitition of things said already. But as you may have discerned, I am more than a bit conflicted about the company's future. Great prodoct and potential, but it's still a business.
 
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