Too much speculation going on here.... truth is, no one can...

Too much speculation going on here.... truth is, no one can really forecast anything with a certain degree of accuracy. Be wary of broker price targets and reports, they can be conflicted. P/E doesn't mean anything if you take a long term view. P/E is a short sighted measure, especially for companies that are growing rapidly.

You need to ask yourself...

Does the company have sustainable competitive advantages? Yes
Is the company growing and taking market share? Yes
Is the company positioned in a growing sector/market and are a leader in what they do? Yes
Is it a quality company with a strong balance sheet? Yes
Does it have a strong customer base? Yes
Does it have a strong management team with skin in the game? Yes

If the company checks all these things, than price or P/E doesn't matter. It's irrelevant in the long run. If you looked at the company 2 - 3 years ago and calculated the P/E it probably would've been overvalued back then also. Focusing on price or retraces is good if you want get in at more attractive price.

There is always a risk of an investment loss, but if you hold an investment long term that risk starts to seriously reduce, particularly with high quality companies. There are no guarantees but if you at least invest in a company that has these characteristics, you're taking a calcuated bet and not pissing your money down some highly speculative stock. You'll sleep easier at night. ALU has a really great, innovative and leading edge product and the company has been around for a long time, so it won't be easier for a new entrant to outpace them in a short period of time because this software is a product of many years of research and hundreds of millions of dollars of investment.