I'm bearish on global markets because IMHO, current global equity market valuations are an illusion built on easy monetary policy. There are several potential global bubbles IMHO - global property bubble, tech bubble, start up bubble, education bubble, equity bubbles, emerging market bubble, bond bubble, junk bond bubble, etc. just to name a few which are all fuelled by ZIRP/ easy monetary policy / QE. The only exception according to me is gold, which IMHO should be in a massive bull market, but ironically it is in a bear market (which seems to be ending).
All these illusions can change very fast once the real picture sets in (Iron ore and oil last year are good examples). Alternatively, the illusion can continue much longer than it should, as has already been happening with equity markets.
However, there are several alternate scenarios that can play out in the coming years include extreme depression, stagflation, hyper inflation, and some combination of all of them - so I'm not into making predictions.
In a severe bear market and a repeat of the 2008 liquidity crunch, poorly funded companies could be hit hard. I think that all companies need to ensure they get funding for the coming years now itself, and this is one reason why I feel insto support is one of the most important factors.
Graphite might be hit hard if there are no technological advances that support graphite. Having said that, it has already fallen over the years, and further fall could be limited.
Alternatively, graphite might form a massive bubble if the tech advances materialise - electric vehicles, solar energy, batteries, super strong graphene products, etc. (I won't go in too deep here as it is very early stages). My optimistic market cap for the major graphite players is assuming that these tech advances materialise, and it is then easy to see how the market caps could materialise as these companies would be the BHP/RIO of graphite.
Tech is always advancing; so there's no harm in keeping an eye out on the future for what may happen, and be cautiously optimistic. These may or may not materialise - so don't bet the family farm on them.
I've liked TON mainly from point of market cap as compared to its peer, and that is the first thing I feel investors should focus on, for now. Good news about offtakes and insto support might facilitate this to a great extent.
Much is speculation and I hence always warn people that many things might not materialise and go as anticipated. I'm just trying to offer my humble opinions on some alternate scenarios that may or may not play out.
TON Price at posting:
33.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
