will try and fill in some of the history/reasons re some of your points, ozpolabear.
SYR vs TON.
As you stated there is a OverAll Perception/Concern about 2017 /20 Supply being far in excess of 2017/20 Demand. This has been a concern since 2012. It underlies the Bubble Fear.
SYR came out with it was to supply 100's of KTS to NEW DEMAND in the Cast Iron Recarb market and to the Aluminium Industry. You seem to have missed the Recarb 100 up 180-kts from Asmet, ozB but I emphasise this is NEW Demand with natural flake graphite never used in kts quantities before.
As to the Aluminium for use in annodes whatever of Natural Flake graphite? This too is New Demand, a New Market. This facet was 'disputed' from Day 1 as 'improbable' and NOW months, years later the Chinalco Offtake 'firmed up' for imminent DFS release has also confirmed that 'in the first few years of off take' Chinalco will NOT be taking it's flake graphite for the purposes of Aluminium Smeltering ie the New Demand but for 'other' purposes Chinalco has exclusive Rights to SYR Balama in China.
Now this all means one avenue of New Demand thru Aluminium is 'set back". Perhaps that's why the MOU dropped back from 100kts to 80kts?
but more importantly it has put a Spot light on the "Validity" of the Asmet Recarb deal. Is it a New Demand no go just yet too?
Ozpolarbear the Asmet 'deal' is for ALL Fine. There's even a proposal to grind Any and All other flake sizes beyond filling the Chinalco Order, grinding every thing into fine to make the Asmet Pellets of stipulated 94% Purity. Again I emphasise for New Demand.
And ozbear the 'trick' is that no other Graphite Company has had a sniff of offtakes for this new Demand in these two new Industries and maybe that's Why? SYR has such a Divergence in Market Cap Analysis/
They 'say' they have solved the Supply/Demand bubble 'problem' by new demand finding but have they?
Thus the predictions of SYR rerating DOWN, and the 'niggling'/questioning going on re Delayed DFS.
but the recent 'raids' by Tonners on the SYR thread even by Freehold are pretty 'gnatty' The SYRians are much more savvy than your average rah rah tonner who is very unresearched in the Graphite Sector/Market. Is just obsessed with some FA use of MC differential Analysis tacked onto tales of other pennies that went to $$ a la the SIR/TON thread recently.
So anyway ozpolarbear there's a reason SYR says it has New Demand that resolves the OverSupply 'question' to justify why the MC differential.
TON is peered with MNS because it TON or MNS is not a SYR Peer because of this FActor New Demand Satisfaction by SYR in NEW Industries.
Now if SYR fails to get this new demand? Why then SYR/TON/MNS will get some Parity. And the Flake Wars can break out again
Do you want to trust my GERO ozpolarbear? Accept it as having Some Validity or do you want me to
@Pauldola or
@tobyjack or
@mainholm or even @ Prime1 to further educate you ozpolarbear in the years of research in Siberia??
cheers keep up the research
