Equity markets are forward looking. They have already priced in a deep recession. The real economy lags the equity markets by roughly 6 months. Therefore, the US economy will start to pick up about 6 months after the equity markets have bottomed.
Whether they have "bottomed" is the question? As LIBOR starts to drop, the chance of "depression" eases dramatically. Credit markets thawing is the start of the recovery, not the be all and end all, but it's a start.
Top 50 stocks are quite clearly a buy now for a long term portfolio. The mid and small caps will lag significantly, but when they eventually catch up, the rise will be dramatic. Some of the mid caps are on P/E ratios of 4 and less.
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Zac Komur, MD & CEO
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