I'm not sure it's recession proof but get what you're saying. Certainly Visteon and Larson have been affected by consumer sentiment. Even BAE might be affected as govt's cut defence spending.
On reviewing the AGM the revenue estimate looks very conservative. From my understanding the amounts for Defence and Auto are purely for developent contracts, so if BAE get on stream there will be some upside in revenue there although I don't expect Navistar to come on stream until 2010. There was no estimate for PC locks and Larsens still looks on the light side. The real opportunity remains with Int. Enterprise - $3m is very modest. While aerospace is some time away they may well sign some distribution/royalty agreements in '09.
I think by the end of FY'09 we'll see a different picture. By my reckoning if they generate $35m revenue they will have about 3c eps so good enough for todays share price. I see limited downside now, hence some buyers coming in and management topping up. It's just a waiting game now - I get the feeling we'll see some good announcements in Q1 FY'09 calendar
TZL Price at posting:
$1.28 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
