I doubt they'll cut until September. There are tax cuts in July, so they probably won't reduce interest rates before they see what affect they have. Unemployment is a lagging indicator in that it keeps rising for a while after economic conditions turn. When they do cut rates I suspect they will do so quite aggressively because they're probably too high now, and will remain too high for another 6 months. A single cut won't suddenly spring the economy back to life, so there will probably be 3 or 4 rate cuts before the election.
