For those interested in the options, I have pasted an excerpt from a spreadsheet I did on expected option pricing for various MNB share prices (Col A)
The 3 coloured columns are for 65%, 80% & 100% Volatility. I used this online Black-Scholes calculator. B-S is one of the pricing formulas many companies use to find fair value for the options
https://www.mystockoptions.com/black-scholes.cfm
I used 7c exercise price, various MNB share prices, 2 years to maturity, I used 0.25% Interest rate - more correct would be the long term bond rate of about 4% but makes little difference, and I used the 3 volatilities shown above.
Columns B & C are expected prices for MNBOB based on the history of MNBOA, both are adjusted considering the time MNBOA had to run till expiry back to a 2 year expiry as per MNBOB’s current position in the time clock (ie I adjusted the MNBOA option traded price using the formula back to a 2 year expiry)
Column B I just worked out what volatility matched MNBOA’s price for the SP of MNB at the time, then applied that same volatility to MNBOB
Column C I worked out the % variance MNBOA was to MNB on various dates, then applied that same % variation to MNB/MNBOB (MNBOA was a 15c option)
You’ll find the values in Col B & C are fairly similar, there are variations because I used the mid price for both the share & the option on each date - some days had a big spread.
I explain the various corresponding volatilities down to how eager people are to buy, sometimes you buy the option cheaply, sometimes people are willing to pay a premium.
Anyway gives you a guide as to the price MNBOB should trade at. At the moment I think fair value is closer to the 80% column, as MNB goes past 7-8c I found with MNBOA the price corresponded to a higher volatility figure, even beyond 100%.
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Last
6.3¢ |
Change
0.003(5.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $55.35M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
6.0¢ | 6.5¢ | 5.9¢ | $15.02K | 236.7K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 302743 | 6.2¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
6.4¢ | 10000 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 190000 | 0.062 |
1 | 250000 | 0.061 |
4 | 150000 | 0.060 |
1 | 25000 | 0.058 |
4 | 118695 | 0.057 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.065 | 28253 | 1 |
0.069 | 241507 | 3 |
0.071 | 72075 | 1 |
0.072 | 50000 | 1 |
0.073 | 418053 | 3 |
Last trade - 15.22pm 06/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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