For those interested in the options, I have pasted an excerpt...

For those interested in the options, I have pasted an excerpt from a spreadsheet I did on expected option pricing for various MNB share prices (Col A)

The 3 coloured columns are for 65%, 80% & 100% Volatility. I used this online Black-Scholes calculator. B-S is one of the pricing formulas many companies use to find fair value for the options

https://www.mystockoptions.com/black-scholes.cfm

I used 7c exercise price, various MNB share prices, 2 years to maturity, I used 0.25% Interest rate - more correct would be the long term bond rate of about 4% but makes little difference, and I used the 3 volatilities shown above.

Columns B & C are expected prices for MNBOB based on the history of MNBOA, both are adjusted considering the time MNBOA had to run till expiry back to a 2 year expiry as per MNBOB’s current position in the time clock (ie I adjusted the MNBOA option traded price using the formula back to a 2 year expiry)

Column B I just worked out what volatility matched MNBOA’s price for the SP of MNB at the time, then applied that same volatility to MNBOB

Column C I worked out the % variance MNBOA was to MNB on various dates, then applied that same % variation to MNB/MNBOB (MNBOA was a 15c option)

You’ll find the values in Col B & C are fairly similar, there are variations because I used the mid price for both the share & the option on each date - some days had a big spread.

I explain the various corresponding volatilities down to how eager people are to buy, sometimes you buy the option cheaply, sometimes people are willing to pay a premium.

Anyway gives you a guide as to the price MNBOB should trade at. At the moment I think fair value is closer to the 80% column, as MNB goes past 7-8c I found with MNBOA the price corresponded to a higher volatility figure, even beyond 100%.