MNB

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September next week !!!Upside is based on forward looking...

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Merchant2000

21,912 Posts.

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23/08/24

12:45

Post #: 75342080
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Originally posted by chuk: ↑

You happily talk about the remaining funding risk, which clearly is much lower now with the SWF investment, but you still don't discuss the more likely upside risks.
At 6.8c, the market cap is only $60mill or more accurately, call it $72mill after allowing for the SWF investment at 8c.

DFS after tax NPV is US$261mill or A$390mill at last month's TSP price.

For the $72mill market cap (including allowance for the SWF investment), to climb to A$390mill, it would take a 5.4 times increase in share price.
Even if we assume ALL outstanding options are exercised - including those at 15 and 17c, the fully diluted mc would be $84mill and that still leaves 4.8 times upside for the sp.
That NPV does not include US$10mill upfront capex and US$24mill stage 2 capex savings. That's A$50mill in capex savings to add to the $390mill after tax NPV.
Add the capex savings to the NPV and it would be 5.2 times upside - that's 35.6c per share or 31.5c per share ignoring the capex savings - and I don't see any reason to ignore the capex savings but we can call that a buffer on the NPV valuation.
You keep talking about downside risks but keep ignoring the obviously much larger and now more likely upside risk.

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September next week !!!

Upside is based on forward looking statements
which you should read the disclaimers - some did
Look at forward looking statements from 2021 - 2023

Mostly proven as hype and fluff

Dilution after dilution and still need 100% for construction etc

So many unknowns and unforeseens etc

Rewards for a select few

Last edited by Merchant2000: 23/08/24

MNB Price at posting: 6.9¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
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