A few other major changes over the DFS also offer significant potential upside to the DFS after tax NPV valuation.
I mentioned the A$50mill capex savings earlier which probably bumps the current after tax A$390mill NPV up to A$440mill.
Two other factors that should increase the NPV further;
1. The post Carrinho production forecasts with a big increase, in the first 5 years in particular, over the DFS assumptions as shown below.
2. The likely expansion to stage 2 in the first year rather than in year 7 and the possible 200,000tpa exports in addition to the forecasts above for local sales. The DFS had forecast 92,000t in year 2. That was upgraded to 163,000t after Carrihno signed its binding MOU. Now Minbos has an MOU with Foskor for an additional amount. That's not binding but from previous announcements that could be another 200,000t per year. While we can't count on that until its a binding offtake, it does offer further strong upside additional to the already large upgraded post Carrihno and post DFS production guidance. As for the chances of that MOU becoming a firm offtake, it's worth remembering that Foskor is majority owned by the IDC and the IDC approving its loan to Minbos is probably a good indication that they do want to convert that MOU into a contract if they are happy with the product after their own testing.
MNB Price at posting:
6.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
