After having MNB on my watchlist since 2022, I made my initial SP purchases yesterday & today. The success of MNB producing phosphate is a Win/Win/Win/Win- for the people of Angola, & Africa generally; for the Angolan govt; for the environment; & for MNB shareholders.
On a Risk /Reward basis, I am comfortable. With such a low capex of us $26m (IDC & SWF have done their DD, & already significantly reduced this amount with their funding),& a simple process to build the phosphate facility, it is extremely unlikely that the phosphate production will not occur. Carrinho etc.offtakes are, IMO, inevitable.
The Risk is more delays, & missing production for the 2025 growing season (I suspect less than a 20% chance of this happening).
The Reward is NPV, at current TSP spot prices, of A$390m...& MNB MC is only $50m! Once Angolan bank announces the remaining small amount of funding, & construction starts (late October 2024?), I expect a significant rise in the SP.
(And what is the eventual value of the PH for EV batteries-growing demand: & Green Ammonia projects/)
Angola has already attracted many US billions of western & Chinese investment, mainly oil & diamonds.
The European Commission said 1.9.24
"
Angola is the EU's 5th investment destination on the African continent. It covers 8% of EU foreign direct investments in Africa, amounting to €21.7 billion in 2022. Angola's investments in the EU amounted to €2.9 billion in 2022.The EU is Angola's main trade and investment partner...".
EU-Angola Sustainable Investment Facilitation Agreement (europa.eu)
bloomberg referred to geopolitical competition (which indirectly will, eventually, benefit MNB) in southern Africa, when it, on 3.9.24, said "The Development Bank of Southern Africa has approved as much as $200 million for the US-backed Lobito corridor rail project that willhaul critical mineralsfrom central Africa’s copperbelt to an Atlantic port in Angola.
“The railway line is part of a broader strategy to support the energy transition by facilitating the export of critical minerals needed for renewable-energy technologies,” Mpho Mokwele, executive for transacting at DBSA, said in a statement Tuesday. “The Lobito corridor is expected to become the most competitive route for exporting these minerals, offering significant cost and time savings for exporters...
The lender is providing the financing alongside the US International Development Finance Corp., which has approved $553 million for the project".
US-backed Angola rail plan secures $200 million from key bank - MINING.COMMany thanks to the well-researched MNB posters on HC. Its a shame that we have 2 posters trolling MNB (I have put them on Ignore).
