MNB 1.89% 5.4¢ minbos resources limited

No doubt their next article will discuss the increased value of...

  1. 13,745 Posts.
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    No doubt their next article will discuss the increased value of the project over what was estimated in the scoping study based on MAP prices (very similar to DAP prices) that were well below current DAP prices.
    A quick recall;
    Scoping study low and high assumptions on MAP price was US$357 -482. At the upper end of $485, after tax NPV was U$260mill or A$335mill.
    85% share of that is A$285mill. That is what the project is worth to MNB shareholders at a DAP rice of $485. Current fully diluted market cap is A$44mill if all options are exercised. If all options are exercised, that raises $11.8mill. Current cash is around $9mill. Capex is low at US$22-28mill, with strong support from the IFDC. I doubt we will see any further cr for the current project.
    $44mill (fully diluted) mc to $285mill after tax NPV gives 6.5 times upside in around 1.5 years when this goes into production. That is compelling value.
    However the DAP price in February was well above the top end of the range used in the scoping study. $482 was the top end of assumptions and Feb price averaged $528 and the trend was firmly up. Upside might be more like 8 times now. None of that factors in anything going on in the background that the CEO could barely contain his excitement over in that video interview. That is why I see at least a ten bagger in the next 1.5 years.
    If I'm right, you won't be seeing any more posts from me. I'll be retired by the time this 5 bags!

 
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