Sentence, you posted a very valid point on the 700 mill Roche...

Sentence, you posted a very valid point on the 700 mill Roche forecasted for the following year. Roche has time and again managed to cash in on the opportunities during the Birdflu outbreak and the swine flu outbreak.

Reduction in total antiviral market will not affect Relenza as much as Tamiflu
The Tamiflu share is predicted to be 2.7billion because of the limited Relenza supply. Before the swineflu outbreak Relenza market share was steadily increasing from around 7% during the Birdflu outbreak to as much as 33% of the shrinking pie due to the growing awareness of the Tamiflu problems.

Some of the earlier pandemic stockpile is approaching its expiry date. Tamiflu has a 7 years expiry and Relenza has 5 years. The replenishment market (from memory) is worth about 1 bill per annum and this will favour Relenza as health authorities are advising their government to increase the % in Relenza’s favour.

We should also not forget that the Relenza patents are in their twilight years. This is why it is so important that BTA/DS bring LANI to market as soon as possible. No LANI trials were carried out in ROW after Peter Molloy stepped down as CEO. It is a damming indictment of missed opportunities.

There is another statistic, we need to be aware of. Of the 190million planned production capacity, 90 million is the standard Relenza (Diskhaler). The other 100 million is Rotacaps/Rotahaler which has temporary approval by Swedish regulators. Thus it is only for pandemic sale to EU but not the other markets.

We have no information what-so-ever on how far the planned increase from 60million to 90million (normal Relenza) and the other 100million. In contrast, Roche had already achieved their planned increase from 200million to 400million last month.