Record High, page-45

Hey where can you find met coal prices. I cant find them anywhere online other than articles that have a very basic graph.

One thing to note is the EBIT sensitivity is on a per annum basis I believe. So +10% would be USD 92.5 to the second half of FY22 and if held in FY23 then would add USD185m.

Just some rough price forecasts... Top is if the commodities can hold the current price for rest of the half i.e. it would result in Aluminium realising 30% higher prices from 1H. The bottom is what FY22 earnings and div would look like if the prices were to remain the sam as 1H22.

This also doesn't include restart of brazil aluminium smelter, the addition of sierra gorda mine for copper. The only assumption is met coal prices follow oil prices hence why I put 30% above H1 realised price. However, could be higher or lower but cant find reliable met coal data. Other assumption is all price increase directly flows onto EBITDA and EBIT meaning cost base is the same.

In essence at $5 should be trading a 10% div yield PA and has the ability to increase payout % as earnings are stupidly high and don't know how to use excess cash.