A40 0.00% 8.2¢ alita resources limited

A few points.I am not sure why you seem very fixated about the...

  1. 94 Posts.
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    A few points.

    I am not sure why you seem very fixated about the idea that management did not deliver expected shipment.

    I am assuming your 30KT "expected" shipment came from the January production update announcement that states "An additional 30,000t lithium concentrate is expected to be shipped or ready forshipment during March 2019 quarter". After that announcement 22 kt lithium was delivered in March and 12 kt lithium is currently sitting in the stockpile and ready to be shipped in April.

    Anyone reads this current update and still thinks the management has not delivered in terms of production or shipment, is either upfront ignorant or has another agenda.

    In terms of TA shipment, there is a bit of confusion about the unit and pricing etc, but that is only a small portion of the revenue.

    On the other hand, the cost of production and the cash margin is a valid concern.
    All talking in terms of US dollars, my estimate for cost of production for A40 in March quarter is 35M AUD/ 38kt = 914 AUD/t = 658 USD/t. This is still significantly higher than the average cost of production for 2019 as provided by the mining plan (which estimated 585 USD/t for the year of 2019), so I would expect cost of production to drop quarter to quarter. With a floor price of 680 USD/t, this will hardly make any money in the short term.

    Looking at our peer starters PLS and AJM, cost of production was not published yet but I dont believe their numbers will be as good as in the their DFS (in the range of 300-400 USD/t). For one, DFS was done at least 2 years ago, and we have seen significant cost overrun in terms of building the mine, there is no reason to believe the production cost will be as nicely as it was presented in the DFS, at least not in the commissioning phase. I expect a lot of people to be surprised to find out what their actual costs are. Not to mention the significant debt burden. On example : 170 M AUD x 0.15 (interest rate) / 220kt = 115 AUD/t = 83 USD/t. That is 83 USD/ t of cost just to pay off the interest on the loan, let alone any repayment.

    In the current climate, for the new miners. it is a game of survival. I don't believe any of them to make significant amount of money with the current spod prices. But if A40 managed to get over this period, successfully complete the fines circuit without a CR, future is bright when lithium price turns around and cost of production significantly reduces.
 
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