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AntN

29,491 Posts.

33

19/12/23

14:49

Post #: 71528803
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Originally posted by pintohoo ↑

This El Nino is vastly different - and ocean temps are vastly different this year. El Nino doesn't mean no cyclones.

So, a very unusual El Nino this year, a first ever cyclone in December in an El Nino, record ocean temperatures -

AND the biggest flood for Cairns in a century --------------------- coincidence??????????? ------------- doubt it.

Warm water - turns to rain.

''The El Niño event in 2023 is expected to be different due to its potential strength and impact on global weather patterns. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), forecasters expect the El Niño event to continue through the spring, with a 75-85% chance it will become a strong event, which could affect winter temperature and rain/snow patterns around the world

. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño's influence on the climate could lead to new temperature records, with a 93% probability that at least one year between 2023 and 2026 will be the warmest on record

The anticipated persistence and potential strength of El Niño in 2023 are key factors that differentiate it from previous events.''

---------------------------------

''The global sea surface temperature anomaly on June 13 was about 4.5 standard deviations above the baseline global average. Put another way, this means the likelihood of current temperatures happening totally at random, if the climate this month was unchanged from the baseline period, are about 1 in 1.2 million.''

https://theconversation.com/global-...ly-arrived-we-should-be-very-concerned-207731

''Part of what’s making this so jarring is that ENSO is coming out of an unusually long La Niña phase. They typically last one to two years, but the world has been in one since 2020. “There’s only been three triple-dip La Niñas in the last 50 years: One in 1973 to 76, one from 1998 to 2001, and then this one,” said McPhaden. That has allowed more heat energy to accumulate in the ocean and may have helped cushion some of the warming due to climate change. However, the World Meteorological Organization noted that the past eight years were still the hottest on record.
So the warming water detected in the equatorial Pacific and the rebound from La Niña pointed toward a strong El Niño. “All the ingredients are in place and the soup is cooking,” McPhaden said. “The ocean is uncorked. All that heat that was stored below the surface of the ocean is going to come out.”

https://www.vox.com/climate/2373884...-heat-wave-climate-change-disaster-flood-rain

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Normally after a 'warm spell' the precipitation is dump north near the equator, Indonesia floods last year for example. This time the deluge was bought over from the East (Cyclone jasper) as well as the local evaporation that didn't get moved north.

Plus we double CO2e in 50yrs adding >3.6w/m2 to the Climates energy budget....
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