volumes seem to have normalised vs 5yr average but this is...

volumes seem to have normalised vs 5yr average but this is backward looking and current state of play. the key will be what happens to the real estate market going forward over the next 2yrs.

1. affordability - there is a rise in distressed sales in NSW according to SQM which is not surprising - for anyone living in sydney with a mortgage there has been the combined impact of higher interest rates and higher living costs and the price points are so high relative to incomes you would think affordability problems are coming soon

2. immigration - there was a 500K+ flood post pandemic but this too will noralise back to ~200K p.a.

to your (saintex) point on which model is better and why MEA is going franchise my feeling is that based on the history of this company the value dramatically fell when talent was lost. as you correctly point out key in this game is transaction volumes and key to that is good sales talent combined with branding - to get the listing and then to close the sale. franchise model to me is the lowest cost way to lock in talent as they are the business owners so they will not jump ship and everyone shares in the market costs.

i agree by the way that The agency will not work as a public company as their is no value left after the sales people and management take their share. they talk about scaling for profitability but scaling also then has risk in the downturn when to fixed costs can sink the boat. i would steer away. you look at the long established sucess of ray white and wonder why in a high tech world they still lead the industry - their model has proven sucessful over the years and even in the current on line oriented buyer they maintain their leadership.

one benefit for shareholders and john himself is the special dividends that are paid from the sale of company offices. hopefully there will be a bunch over the next two years. - anyone familiar with any office sales & conversion to franchise over the past 6 months?