Recovery story, page-3

@ozboypete

From what I can see in the most recent investor presentation, they do still have the plan / expectation of EBITDA positive by 2025.

The problem remains that it is heavily contingent on the company no longer experiencing any one-off costs whatsoever (which is contrary to their track record) or any other headwinds e.g. FX rates.

There is plenty of potential for them to achieve the expected 50% growth in China (off a small base since they have only just regained distribution there).

It's a bit less clear how much potential there is for growth in USA. Alot of the early growth was assisted with support from the US government, tariff waivers & subsidies etc. and it's not clear how they will fare longer term without those things.

BUB don't give any detail on relevant metrics like brand recognition or loyalty, so there is no way of knowing whether they retain customers who they convince to try their products initially, through heavy investment in marketing, promotional pricing etc.

There is also a potential limit to growth through expansion of their brick and mortar distribution network. Initially, much of their growth will be a result of adding more stores. But at some point that stops, and growth instead will reflect actual in-store sales turnover. It all costs the company a lot more money to achieve those sales (compared to in China for instance). Which all represents an increasing drag on the bottom line, to keep up the growth momentum needed.