In 2024, China's birth rate increased to 6.77 births per 1,000...

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AjitJ

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30/01/25

13:45

Post #: 77623789
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Originally posted by werdplaya58: ↑

I would argue the biggest difference between then and now is the overall potential for revenue and earnings growth in the longer term.

The infant formula market has undergone a major downturn since 2020 and will never recover to its former heights, primarily due to globally falling birth rates. This has led to the prospects of all companies in the sector generally being rated with lower PE multiples than were applied back then.

That is also why many larger producers are pivoting toward whole-of-life and senior nutrition products to offset a singular focus on infant and child nutrition. It's not as feasible for smaller companies like BUB which lack the manufacturing and marketing bandwidth.

BUB may not achieve the same magnitude of sales revenue that it once appeared on track to do, but if it can net strong margins on what it does achieve then there is still some prospect for growth IMO. The earnings-per-share dilution resulting from multiple capital raises, and the lower PE applied by the market, just means that it requires much stronger financial performance to return to share prices that it has had in the past. Essentially it is a much steeper uphill battle than it was back then.

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In 2024, China's birth rate increased to 6.77 births per 1,000 people, up from 6.39 per 1,000 in 2023. This marks the first rise in the birth rate in seven years.

BUB Price at posting: 12.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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