Recovery Time

This is just my personal view.

Average recovery time from coronavirus is under 14 days.
Inverse of 14 is 7.
Therefore so long as new infection rate is less than 7%, there should be a decline in net exposures (total cases - recovered cases).

Current infection rate is around 2-3%

If we multiply 3% by 14 we get 42%.

So theoretically in 14 days time the current 5,500 cases should have recovered but we will have 42% x 5,500 = 2640 new current cases.

In the following 14 days (days 15-28) 2640 cases recovered but 42% x 2640 = 1108 cases.

If infection rate holds at 2% the net exposure rate declines even faster.

All back of the envelope rough calculations.

But it shows to me that in Australia at least, we should get through this quite fast.

This means that the domestic economy should be able to get back and running much faster than 6 months.

I don't think international travel will be available for 6 months at least.

Therefore if Australia domestic economy gets back up and running within 2 months, is domestic travel sufficient to keep Flight Centre afloat, this is the key question I think people need to be asking themselves.

I bought on market today at $9.75