Recovery Underway

I though the stock needed a new thread as price movement suggests that the previous thread is clearly too negative and unwarranted.

Broker Consensus: 9 Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell - Buy
Nufarm Ltd (ASX:NUF) Share Price - Market Index 14 Sept 2021

In case anybody missed the recent UBS update. see below:

UBS Research - 09/16/2021 Nufarm

"Nufarm's earnings turnaround journey has only just begun. Reiterate Buy"

Can earnings growth continue into FY22? 
Over the past 12mths, we have been highlighting Nufarm as undergoing a significant earnings turnaround after multiple periods of underperformance (see here). We think the turnaround to date has proceeded well with the company expected to deliver solid FY21 EBITDA growth of 44% to A$354mn. However, we think Nufarm's earnings turnaround journey is not yet complete, with our expectation Nufarm can deliver an additional 10% EBITDA growth in FY22 to A$387mn. This growth will be driven by a combination of A$15mn of cost-out benefits from the Performance Improvement Program as well A$19mn of organic growth, given the current favourable outlook for agriculture demand in Nufarm's key regions. We highlight elevated crop prices driving near-record planted acreage forecasts in both North America/Australia and Europe plantings continuing to normalise after 3yrs of significant drought impacts.

What's Nufarm's share price implying for FY22?
Nufarm's share price has significantly underperformed since its strong 1H21 result, declining 15% vs. ASX200 +6%. Our valuation back-testing using Nufarm's long-term average EV/EBITDA of 6.5x has found the current share price implying an FY22 EBITDA of A$345mn, 3% below FY21e and 11% below UBSe. In our view, an earnings decline in FY22 would require a deterioration in global agriculture conditions over the next 12mths compared to current favourable conditions.Reiterate Buy. A solid earnings turnaround at a compelling valuationWe remain Buy-rated on Nufarm with the stock trading at an attractive FY22E EV/EBITDA of 5.5x vs. long-term average of 6.5x. We think recent share price weakness over possible concerns of an earnings decline in FY22 are unwarranted, and instead forecast 10% EBITDA growth. In our view, the current share price presents an attractive entry point to gain leverage to what is a solid Nufarm earnings turnaround as well as a strong global agriculture recovery.

Valuation: 12m price target A$6.04p/sh. Buy
Our price target of A$6.04 (was A$5.95) increases slightly on the back of our reduced capex assumptions and remains based on a DCF valuation approach. Our target price implies an FY22 EV/EBITDA of 6.5x, in-line with Nufarm's long-term trading average.