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Lute

2,576 Posts.

322

04/09/18

18:53

Post #: 35412167
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Originally posted by majushal ↑

So back of the envelope calculations per lb: Zinc Price USD 112c
C3 Costs USD 50c
EBIT 62c
Interest (10% on $50m say) 1c
Tax @ 30% 18c
NPAT USD 43c
NPAT AUD@72c 59c

x 260,000,oookg x 2.2 (convert from lb)

= $337.4m NPAT AUD fully diluted over 620m shares
= 54c eps in aud or currently a pe of just over 2

PE of 5 = $2.50 per share, share price
PE of 10 = $5.00 per share, share price

These numbers assume an up and running steady state operation assuming all goes well and recoveries as expected, so ignore ramp ups etc. A rough double check against the feasibility study gives me confidence these numbers are in the ballpark even if I have left something out. That looks cheap to me, even allowing for cost overruns. Even falling to AUD$1 per lb the numbers still look good - see below. Nevertheless DYOR.

View attachment 1275131

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You might be using the bearish case price of $1.00 / lb.

Current spot price for zinc $1.115

Cheers Lute

NCZ Price at posting: $1.20 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
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