I'll play Periculum's game as well but I'm afraid my prediction...

I'll play Periculum's game as well but I'm afraid my prediction isn't going to be a wildly optimistic one, nor a wildly popular one on HotCopper:-

Name - JoeKing2

Prediction - The Red 5 Ltd share-price won't rise sufficiently for the company to enter the ranks of the top ten Aussie ASX listed gold miners by Market Capitalisation

Deadline - By 31/12/24 (and sometime beyond as well I'd suggest).

Reason - Most of the facts used to calculate a value for the Red 5 share-price are already known. HotCopper posters suggesting the share-price will take off when debt is fully repaid and hedges are fully closed out neglect to consider that these aspects are already "known knows" and already factored into brokers and analysts target share-price calculations. DCF Analysis, for instance, may be based on forecasts of the company's activities going out 5-10 years. HotCopper posters forecasting that a higher future gold price will lift Red 5 shares will likely be correct if the gold prices does rise, but such a rising tide will lift all boats and will likely lift the share-price of all Australian gold mining stocks.

Other than takeover activity, and perhaps plant throughput at KOTH being sustained at well above design specs, to my mind there don't really seem to be any factor or factors in the near-term future which suggest the Red 5 Ltd share-price could out-perform the gold sector as a whole. Even on the takeover front, RED's current Market Capitalisation makes it a bloody expensive buy for the post-tax profits it's likely to generate from here on.

RED has had a pretty remarkable run since it's share-price was in the mid-teens in 2023 but it's hard to see the share-price performing better than the overall gold index from now on. Astute investors are probably already looking for, and investing in, "the next Red 5".