Red Gold, page-23

Hi cj, I don't think I can answer that simply so I'll have to give a general longish reply.
I don't think it is manipulation, it is a case of fear overtaking comfort with pit, production and de-watering problems to understand, manage and make workable. Most of the reasons for the fall was because of company reports between 1/11/11 and 01/03/12 in charting terms there was basically a triple top; $2.40 around1/9/11, $2.30 around 30/11/11 and $2.34 around 1/3/12. In other words there were three failed attempts to rise above $2.40 and a sign to get out at all costs then as the price went into a continual stage 3 down trend to where it is at a low basing price in the 5 - 6s. This is the report that started the decline.
Company Report 1^st March 2012
(Siana gold mine - production and cost guidance Commissioning at the Siana gold mine continues, with the declaration of Plant Commercial Production (30 continuous days at an average of 60 percent of the interim ore throughput rate of 750,000 dry tonnes per annum) anticipated by the end of March 2012.

Production and cost guidance has been reviewed with the following expectations: • 4 months to 30 June 2012 – 18,000 ounces gold production at a cash cost of sub AU$450 per ounce • 12 months 2012/13 – 75,000 ounces gold production at a cash cost of sub AU$325 per ounce These numbers are in general accordance with BFS estimates. The cash cost forecast uses the Gold Institute Standard for reporting and includes royalties of 2% gross revenue, Social Development Management Plan Program and Environmental Protection and Enhancement Program commitments, equal to 4% of mining and milling costs. The twelve month forecast to June 2013 will be further reviewed in three months’ time. Exploration in the immediate Siana pit vicinity will cease following completion of the current hole, due largely to operational constraints. Drill hole, SMDD128, located at the north east end of the pit, to follow up previously unidentified mineralisation encountered in earlier cutback activity, has intersected three positions: • 10 metres at 4.0g/t, 15 metres below the current excavated level; and • 7 metres at 11.8g/t and 3 metres at 9.7g/t, interpreted as Panels 9 and 8, which are close to the current pit bottom design....
The downtrend begins ..

There were advices after of capital raisings, de watering management problems, pit and buried pit slump problems, poor fleet delivery with availability problems, power failures and Nature herself turning against them and so on. Then 8/11/2013 Special order site visit - Siana Mine The Company has been advised of a snap inspection of the stabilised tailings storage facility (which is the subject of the current Cease and Desist order) today.

On 16/4/14 a restructure and plan in place
Cease and Desist Order – Siana Gold Project; Board and Management Changes Agreement reached on process for lifting of Cease and Desist Order on the Siana Gold Project, Managing Director change, new Board Appointment Process for lifting of Cease and Desist Order The Company has received formal notification from the Department of Environment and Natural Resources of the Philippines (DENR) that the Cease and Desist Order (CDO) placed over the processing operations at the Siana gold mine will be lifted upon the Company completing certain measures, as have been proposed by the Company. Specifically, the Company must: 1. Complete construction of a new High Density Poly Ethylene (HDPE) lined tailings storage facility downstream of tailings storage facility 4 (TSF4) for additional storage capacity and strength; 2. Install the proposed thickener and cement addition facility to allow for production of a dry tailings product with greater residual strength; and 3. Make the necessary modifications to the existing TSF3 and TSF4 to accommodate the new thickened cement tailings. The DENR has stated that it will liaise with the Environmental Management Bureau in order for the necessary permit amendments to be processed. These works are consistent with the report prepared for the Company by engineering consultants, Knight Piesold and submitted to the Philippine authorities in support of the Company’s request to re-commence gold production at Siana. The Company appreciates the work undertaken by the Philippine regulatory authorities and the Company’s consultants to allow the Company the opportunity to reach this point. Upon completion of these works, the CDO will be lifted allowing for commercial gold production to resume. The Company welcomes this development and anticipates some 6-8 months of construction activities are required to complete the necessary requirements prior to commercial milling activities being able to be commenced. Given the requirement to build up gold levels in the leach circuit, it is anticipated that, subject to the formal lifting of the CDO, gold production will recommence in the first quarter of the 2015 calendar year. The Company currently has A$40 million in uncommitted cash to fund the work necessary to enable recommencement of gold production.
Board and management changes Although the Company has achieved this significant advancement, it regrets that due to personal reasons, Mr Steve Norregaard will no longer be Managing Director but will be retained by the Company on a consultancy arrangement at $275,000 per annum, to assist the Company in re-establishing production at Siana. The Board wishes to thank Mr Norregaard for all his efforts during a difficult period both for him personally and the Company. The Board has resolved to appoint Non-Executive Director, Mr Mark Williams, to the position of Managing Director of the Company. Mr Williams is a mining engineer and he has been actively involved in the outcome that the Company has now achieved. Since being appointed as a director in January 2014, Mr Williams has spent a significant amount of time in the Philippines dealing with the government authorities. Mr Williams was previously General Manager of the Tampakan Copper-Gold Project in Southern Philippines from 2007 to 2013. He has over 20 years of mining industry experience operating a diverse range of open cut, underground, quarrying and civil engineering environments across developed markets; Australia, UK and New Zealand and emerging markets; Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and South Pacific.
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From this point to now there has been a lot of work done with the plan in place and a fairly capable experienced managing director in place now for the future. There have been some movement up and down from reporting in monthly reports on progress. The blogs online can be a little helpful and sometimes unhelpful but hardly manipulation of a serious nature. It has been a long fall and it is overdone but for any upward movement it needs the involvement of new traders because many holders are locked in.. To be perfectly honest a new trader would be puzzled a bit by the complexity of this mining operation as it has the moves of a chessboard at times. A trader needs to know the truth when trading. Is it there? Is it a gold mine of potential, are the complexities manageable and made safe to operate under. Is management on top of the challenges.

When we look at the December financial quarterly report and see after cash costs there sits $16.9 mil. And we are happy. When we look at the all in sustaining costs we see hardly no movement. Qtr started at $8.2mil.and ended at $8.5 mil. Because of an extra $16.5 mil. Fixed assets and development investment costs. Hey where did that go? These are variable costs. Plant modifications, De-watering management, Pit Wall work and so on. So are we making more money than what is seen but investing it in the mine to make it more profitable? Yes I think so. We are told in the Quarterly Activities report that the total operating costs for the quarter were $1144 an ounce and that reflects the large waste components removed from both the East and West Wall cutbacks (variable) and is forecast to reduce in line with the reduction of the strip ratio in future months remembering from July 2016 the the AISC average for the life of the open pit is estimated at $740 to $790 o/z. This is more important than the price of gold.

I think we definitely have a gold mine here, we just need to communicate this and they have done a lot of work. Without too much fear the price should stabilise then move. There is life here. With such a big fall there is a possibility a nice rise soon.
chey