Red Metal Banter, page-520

The copper markets are tumultuous at the moment. July delivery Comex was trading at a $1000/mt premium to LME this morning (it was over USD11,100/mt equiv). The Comex forward spreads are in severe backwardation (was over $0.285/lb July to Sept this AM) and LME remains in strong contango. There's no physical shortage in the US to drive the backwardation, the arb at present would be lucrative to anyone holding LME copper deliverable to the CME, and there is time to move material from Europe to deliver against a July comex short still. Other weird thing is the backwardation is this large 45 days out from first notice on the July contract, usually a squeeze happens closer to when shorts need to roll out (65 days away at latest). Strange times. The world needs higher copper prices to encourage investment in new mines, but the impact on consumers = costs go up = rates stay high for longer = schnitty times. Not a massive fan of the volatility, but let's see where it lands.

The only market info i can get is that fund buying has been strong recently, it's a squeeze regardless. If i were a punter i'd buy July LME and sell July Comex now, and square it up at the end of June. If i were a fund i'd just buy Sept at a discount, no point paying more for July if you're only speculating. Confusing times.