Having a fair bit of free time during this break and also impatiently waiting for met results for Sybella, I decided to round up all of the MRE grades and met results from every ASX listed clay REE play with an MRE into one big table. It took a long time to wade through the poor standard of reporting rare earth met results (and in some cases poor reporting of magnet grades in resource estimates), so happy to clarfiy how I have come to some of these numbers if anyone wants to know specifics.
We don't have RDM's met results yet, but this table is ready and waiting to plug them in when they drop. Not overly useful right now but hopefully will give everyone an idea of the state of play and potential upside if we hit certain % extractions.
| Location | ASX Code | Project | Leach pH | Resource Grades (ppm) | Leach Extractions - Average | Extracted REO
(g of REO per t ore) | Extracted MREE Value | Project EV |
|
|
|
| TREO | Pr₆O₁₁ | Nd₂O₃ | Tb₄O₇ | Dy₂O₃ | Pr | Nd | Tb | Dy | Pr₆O₁₁ | Nd₂O₃ | Tb₄O₇ | Dy₂O₃ | AUD/t ¹ | $m AUD |
| Australia | RDM | Sybella | ? | 1,701 | 75 | 261 | 4.8 | 28 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | 6.8 |
| AR3 | Koppamurra | 1 | 712 | 32 | 121 | 3.2 | 18 | 67 | 67 | 53 | 53 | 21 | 81 | 1.7 | 10 | 17.3 | 10.9 |
| ABX | Deep Leads | 4 | 817 | 36 | 142 | 5.2 | 31 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 14 | 55 | 2 | 12 | 16.1 | 10.5 |
| KTA | Tower | 1 | 840 | 30 | 116 | 3.2 | 19 | 51 | 53 | 44 | 36 | 15 | 62 | 1.4 | 7 | 13.1 | 14.5 |
| GRL | Narraburra | 2 | 739 | 24 | 91 | 2.4 | 14 | 38 | 43 | 44 | 46 | 9 | 39 | 1.1 | 6 | 9.5 | 4.2 |
| VTM | N Stanmore | 1 | 520 | 20 | 70 | 2 | 20 | 11 | 11 | 45 | 44 | 2 | 8 | 0.9 | 9 | 7.0 | 14.0 |
| OD6 | Splinter Rock | 0 | 1,308 | 63 | 220.2 | 2.6 | 15 | 60 | 62 | 58 | 53 | 37 | 136 | 1.5 | 8 | 22.6 | 12.4 |
| Brazil | MEI | Caldeira | 4 | 2,839 | 172 | 478 | 5 | 25 | 56 | 58 | 38 | 35 | 96 | 278 | 2 | 9 | 40.4 | 507.9 |
| TSX:ARA | Carina | 4 | 1,510 | 66 | 231 | 6.9 | 42 | 45 | 46 | 53 | 49 | 29 | 106 | 3.6 | 21 | 29.4 | 90.3 |
| Uganda | IXR | Makuutuu | 1* | 848 | 42 | 150 | 3 | 18 | 49 | 52 | 80 | 80 | 21 | 78 | 2.4 | 14 | 20.6 | 175.8 |
A wall of notes to clarify this table:
1. RDM Sybella grades are the average of Boundary Fence East (SBRC014 to SBRC018 0-120 m) taken from their appendix drill data. In my opinion, the shape and size of Boundary Fence East lends itself to being the project focus based on drilling to date (likely high tonnage from surface with little to no strip). Obviously very early days in the drilling and we need to get some step out drilling underway.
2. The extracted MREE (Magnet REE) per tonne value is the most important number to look at here. It is calculated by multiplying the resource grade of each magnet REE by the leach extraction by the magnet REO price (per SMM as at 20/12/23), and summing for all four magnets. Prices used: Pr-O $65.16 USD/kg, Nd-O $64.81 USD/kg, Tb-O $1116.47 USD/kg, Dy-O - $373.33 USD/kg, USD:AUD 0.70.
3. Project EV is current market cap less cash at 30 September 2023. RDM also corrected for $19.87m in MMA shares current value. IXR Makuutuu corrected for current 60% project ownership (change to 94% not implemented, nor associated shares issued yet)
4. MEI are the top dog to compare against so I spent a lot of time making sure these numbers were representative of the current state of play. MEI's resource grades are for Capao do Mel and Soberbo, their two highest grade resources and the ones they are feeding into their scoping study. Additionally, MEI's extraction are for the highest average (all clay samples) per recent met release, weighted for Soberbo vs Capao resource sizes. Their transition extractions drop off quite a bit, so I have taken a best of the best case scenario for benchmarking, because this best of the best is why they have a massive market cap. To further fine tune, MEI have a 4.75% private revenue royalty (on top of a ~2.5% government royalty), so to compare fairly against RDM (which would just have the QLD 2.5% royalty), I multiplied MEI extracted value per tonne by 95.25%.
5. IXR DFS numbers are for RE recovery not extraction. I went back to their scoping study which shared the leach extraction data at pH 1 to be fair to IXR in this comparison.
With that out of the way, two things are clear from this table. Firstly, the Australian projects are weak compared to the internationals, with AR3 the best at $17.3 AUD/t extracted value. This is reflected in the low project EVs across the board for Aussie REE clays. RDM has the second lowest project EV of the lot..
Secondly, the international projects have significantly larger project EVs, with IXR Makuutuu at $176m AUD, Aclara Carina at $90m AUD and of course MEI Caldeira at a whopping $508m AUD.
If we can get some solid metallurgical extractions without resorting to pH 0 (see OD6 low EV), and go toe to toe with the international projects, a substantial project EV rerate could be on the cards. Not forgetting of course Australia is the ideal jurisdiction for a mine feeding a Western REE supply chain so that must count for something..
With that said, happy new year to holders and all the best for a huge 2024 ahead for RDM!
(20min delay)