Excellent report redback, you are a clever eight legged insect..... and welcome to the bear cave.
Regarding bonds, I have been keeping a close watch and do agree that they are in a 'bubble' so to speak. My view is that note prices will continue to rally as yields decline.
As you said, the banks are in process of selling equities and buying treasury bonds.
I agree with Terry Laundry's analysis that bonds will do well until at least June/July 2011 and stocks inverse.
Tonight will be interesting to watch. The yanks really need to put on a few points here otherwise they are pointing South with momentum.
I'm of the opinion that the next market rally (within 10 days from now if it is to happen) will be the lest exit opportunity before weakness hits from September 2010 to June 2011.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the XJO trading around 3800 by December this year.
I'm hoping for a rally to XJO 4500 or slightly higher by end of August. That to me would be a good place to start an aggressive short position, buying some outside the money puts (eg. 4200 strike) and selling/writing some OTM calls (4700) for December. Very high risk and could be disastrous so please don't view this as advice, it is just my personal opinion.
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Excellent report redback, you are a clever eight legged...
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