redback report, week ended 5/11/10, page-6

Nice comment Danube.

I don't actually think I'm much good as a short term predictor. And I often deliberately go against what the obvious prediction is for the next couple of days.

In my thinking, I completely ignore what happened on the Dow on Friday night and think how will things be in a week's time. My sentiment is based on that time frame - and naturally, all sorts of news can intervene in that time. Probabilities are just that - probabilities. They could prove correct or not.

At major turning points I think I've usually been fairly right. Sometimes a bit late, sometimes a bit early.

I've been bullish long term on this market since early October. That's there in the record for anybody to see. And I'll remain so, until such time as I see evidence for an alternative view. The basis for such calls is also there for all to see.

Such calls are always contingent. As Keynes said, "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"

So - if you're using my short term view as a basis for making trading decisions - you're a bone-head. :)

I offer what I offer as a big picture view of the market and what is happening.

In the end - you have to make up your own mind. Just maybe, what I offer might be of some use to you in making those decisions. I hope so.

Cheers
Red