Hi Redbacka :DI knew it was a question with a bit of...

Hi Redbacka :D

I knew it was a question with a bit of history!

When I was at uni I did a year or two of statistics... very dry stuff and I recall a mathematical definition of statistical significance although I've never been able to bring myself to drag the old text books out (if I still have them!) and apply them to market data!!!

Fwiw the decennial cycle is something that i consider to have statistical significance even if I haven't gone to the extent of specifying a mathematical pass/fail criteria in advance. When I look at the past 100 years I see major buying opportunities in 1932, 1942, 1974, 1982, 2002 and 2009. So just as a matter of opinion without any specific science behind it I consider there to be a preponderance of buying opportunities in years that end with 2!

Regarding your seasonal data... you've quoted gains of 70 odd percent for december but the dow has been up for most of the years since WWII. Have you compared the average gains to all other months and too the average gain expected over the overall period of time?